Recent reflections from the two victories of Mubtadi and the disappointment of Autumnus

Recent reflections: Mubtadi scoring twice and the disappointment of Autumnus

 

It has been a good couple of weeks overall. And it was particularly satisfying to see Mubtadi score twice in a week. Ever since I took on the job as race planner to Ismail, the one horse that had put a dent in the percentages had been this son of Dr Fong.

Admittedly, he was sick after he ran at Redcar but slow breaks at Southwell and Wolverhampton posed plenty of problems, the basic one being the horse is too smart. He recently got loose on the gallops; found the gates locked on his return so he decided to nip next door to James Tate’s.

Mubtadi was gelded after Southwell but still behaved like an entire. He tried to bite, kick and acted like the school bully. What was changed, and it has succeeded, was to treat him with respect. All the headgear (tried in a visor, blinkers and a hood) were removed, as was the tongue tie.

He started working on his own and tactics were changed to make the running.  It has worked perfectly twice under two super rides from Tom Brown. It’s not often I praise jockeys, but Brown, who is criminally underused at Andrew Balding’s, is a star apprentice in the making.

It’s not often a jockey, let alone an apprentice, not only listens to instructions but carries then out. Brown has brought out the best in Mubtadi and the horse in him. The 21-year-old is now starting to make a name for himself and will pick up plenty of rides for Ismail.

It wasn’t all good, though, with the disappointing run of Autumnus. After a promising return from a five-month break, I thought he would win last week at Wolverhampton. Instead, he downed tools from an early stage and, though Shane Kelly got him to the front, he never travelled with any fluency. He soon gave up when challenged.

Disappointments are always laying in wait, but the problems that had beset Autumnus hadn’t returned so the only conclusion is that it’s in his head. He will now go to the sales but the good news is that the owner of Mubtadi has decided to keep him.

Runners are thin on the ground for the next week. Admiralty, twice denied a run, is likely to wait for a race at Southwell in two weeks, a surface he has ran well on in the past, while Light Burst is due back from a break in around three weeks.

ADMIRALTY runs at Wolverhampton tomorrow. Here are my thoughts

Admiralty

It’s an interesting race. There are both positives and negatives with him. The negatives are that it’s his first race since Oct, he runs over 6f for the first time (which I think will suit him) and he has to prove that he will pass horses from behind.

In the past he hasn't seemed too keen which is why he made the running last time. He certainly won't lead with Greenstead High and Celtic Sixpence in the field. Yet, judged on his win over Fortrose Academy (since a winner over 6f), I think 6f will suit ideally, especially if they go quick. He has a high cruising speed.

On the plus side, there isn’t a horse in the race that is in particularly good form, and the value of his win has worked out well and he is only 5lbs higher.

He has a perfect draw in stall one and will wear the blindfold in the stalls like he did when he won last time. He has impressed the staff at home since his break and he is still an unexposed horse.

Disappointments, reality shows, perfect ending

Mubtadi showed all the planning in the world can go out of the window if the said horse decides not to play ball.

The concerns grew when, having been mounted in the paddock at Wolves on Saturday by Shane Kelly, he refused to walk forward, then unwillingly going on to the track.

The plan to lead went out the window when he once again missed the break. The frustrating thing is the problem is mental rather than physical. It has drove me mad since

The only consolation is that the handicapper has dropped him another 5lbs to 57. It means he can run in a 0-60 at Lingfield on Thursday week.

Him missing the break is being worked on and the idea is to let him think he is king of the castle at home. Tom Brown will ride him (Shane goes to Wolves to ride Autumnus) and will take off a valuable 7lbs.

------------------------------------------------
Betting is now out for Dancing On Ice and those who have read this blog before will know that I would have been delighted to see that Beth Tweddle is available at 3-1 with most firms

Yes I know people are yet to see her skate but I have it on good authority that she is superb. Competition starts on Jan 6 but it's a price isn't likely to get any bigger.

Popularity plays an important part in these reality shows (exemplified by the lack of support for Denise Van Outen in Strictly) and you only have to check Tweddle 's page to see how popular she is.

Also Dancing On Ice is one of the few reality shows where the best contestant often gains success.

--------------------------_--------------------_------------------

Mubtadi at Wolverhampton

Mubtadi – Wolverhampton Dec 14

There really shouldn’t be any excuses from him there  He is off his lowest mark, over his best trip and the gelding operation has certainly made a difference.  They were the size of coconuts. He has loads of abilty and, even though he missed the break at Southwell, he ran well until not staying.

He looks well and he is fit despite having 50 days off since his last race. He has also been working well. 

The key will be the tactics. The hood (fitted first trme) will hopefully not just relax him during the race but also cure his habit of missing the break – something he has done the last twice.

There isn’t a lot of pace in the contest so the plan is for Shane to sit handy, but there isn’t an obvious pacemaker so I wouldn’t mind if he made the running. I’m convinced the hood will prevent him from being too keen.

We have the best handicapped horse in the race – he ran well off 80 in July – off a  rating of 62. He certainly didn't try very hard at Southwell but if the gelding has done the trick, the 14-1 offered by BET 365 is way overpriced.

Mubtadi, a potential secret weapon, Beth Tweddle

It's a quiet time for the stable as the wait for new arrivals gathers momentum. They will be appearing in the middle of next month

Mubtadi carries the flag on Friday at Wolverhampton where, granted a decent draw, he will be the one to beat.

His recent form doesn't look great but he has loads of ability and the gelding operation has helped. He worked well in a hood on Saturday under Shane Kelly , who will ride him on Friday.

Our secret weapon may be a horse that worked in the gallop with Mubtadi - he has had problems but they are being attended too!

We are still awaiting the nod from Ismail but he could be an early New Year present if allowed to run just after Christmas.

I thought Christmas had come early whenPaddy Power quoted me 5-1 for Beth Tweddle to win Dancing On Ice - that turned to frustration when I was allowed only £20!!

I love this event from a betting medium and, even though Im likely to compromise my own chance of a decent price,I fancy Tweddle strongly.

Mubtadi works well.......Beth Tweddle,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, X Factor............

Mubtadi worked well this morning in the hood. He went 6f with Autumnus and pulled clear close home. It was pleasing and puts him spot on for a 0-65 7f handicap at Wolverhampton on Friday.

Shane Kelly, who rode him today, will ride him on Friday. He runs off a mark of just 62. He also  runs for the first time as a gelding. Entries are out today.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I know i'm in danger of having egg on my face, but I would suggest taking any prices available on Beth Tweddle to win this year's Dancing On Ice. On paper it looks a poor line-up, the likes of Pamela Anderson, Joe Pasquale, Gareth Thomas and Anthea Turner hardly excite.

Tweddle is a Olympic gymnast, is small but, more importantly, is a natural. Two soap stars have won the last two years but I have long believed a girl has a major advantage. Laura Hamilton and Georgie Porter have been runners-up for the past two years, yet Tweddle is an athlete who has been excellent in training.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It's the final of the X Factor tonight and my advice if you want a bet is to follow the market on Betfair. I'm convinced there is insider trading going on in these reality shows, personified by the last ten minutes of last week's I'm A Celebrity.

Ashley was trading at 1.48 when the final programme began, was still 1.73 with 20 minutes to go. Suddenly a rush of money, saw Ashley drift to 2.5 and the eventual winner, Charlie Brookes, shorten to 1.34 from 2.3.

It's not the first time the market has proved to be the best guide and it could well prove the best form guide tonight.

Mubtadi works with new headgear

Mubtadi works in the morning with a hood in preparation for his race at Wolverhampton next Friday

The gelding operation seems to have worked - he is much happier and manageable - and even dropped head lad, Pete Harrison, on the gallops

He runs off a mark of just 62 and I will be shocked if he can not win of that rating. Shane Kelly is coming in to sit on him.