Powered By Blogger

Wednesday 24 April 2013

Light Burst at Lingfield....................................................................................


Light Burst – Lingfield

This race was originally earmarked for Brighton. The plan being that Light Burst was going to have his next few runs on the turf after his win at Southwell. We are forced to come here because it fits in with a race plan geared towards Royal Ascot.

My main worry about the switch was that it would be a much better race - not many fancy Brighton – but the race has in fact cut up. It was pleasing that Noseda decided to take Noctum to Windsor on Monday. The surface won’t be a worry and his handicap mark is fine for a progressing horse.

When Light Burst won at Southwell he was short of work and saw plenty of daylight. Today, with at least three front runners, the plan is to get cover and attack from the furlong pole. The horse is a strong traveller but lengthens rather than quickens.

Tom Brown is a massive bonus and his claim extremely handy. Light Burst has already run well in this grade, finishing third at Wolverhampton after a break, and the race is chock full of horses dropping in class after disappointing.

Main danger, for me, is Johnno. He is drawn to attack from stall one and he was a progressive handicapper last season in this class. He has been gelded since his last race, but he has been absent since August and there are other front runners to unsettle.

If Light Burst wins here he will go to Doncaster (he will have to win there as well) in three weeks time before hopefully a crack at the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. We have an excellent chance  in a race that could have had more depth.

Tuesday 23 April 2013

Alhaarth Beauty runs at Catterick and news of Educate.........................................................................................................................


Alhaarth Beauty – Catterick

The key to this race is Alhaarth Beauty herself. When you profile a race you start with the horse that you most expect to win. In this case it’s Alhaarth Beauty.
Taking the positives first. Her form is the best on offer even if the last run at Wolverhampton raised question marks over her temperament. She should have won but her head came up in the air when she came under pressure, even with the sheepskin noseband on.
It was her first race for four months (although she was fit enough) and her previous display against Space Artist (since a winner of a 0-80 handicap at Bath) would win this. The return to grass will also help (she worked well on it last weekend) and the rattling fast ground is ideal.
And, yet, it’s her work at home that clouds her chance. This is no doubt if she reproduces her gallop form this would be a formality. Twice she dismissed Light Burst (rated 84) , admittedly over 5f, without turning a hair. The concern is that her head is nearly always low and straight in homework, suggesting she likes the solitude of home.
She could be a morning glory. We have changed a couple of things and have also put on Tom Brown. He claims a valuable five pounds and hopefully will be able to settle her in front on a track that is suited for speed. She handled Goodwood ok so the contours shouldn’t be a problem.
You have to respect the chance of Shirley’s Pride who won on her debut for Mick Appleby and looks to have improved and James Tate’s Free Island has speed but is quirky. But, in truth, Alhaarth Beauty is a grade above these if she deems to perform.
Tom will attempt to make all and, like Mubtadi, she won't be hit. It appears to a mental issue with her. Liam Jones didn't hit her last time but the head still came up. Today is certainly a defining moment for her.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Educate is fine after Newbury. The run in context is perplexing. Haaf  A Sixpence had finished behind him at Doncaster with the benefit of two runs.  The ground wouldn’t have been a problem but he ran no sort of race.
Ismail is keen to get another run into him and it looks likely he will go to Lingfield on May 11. He will step back up to 10f, a trip he won over at York, and he will be dropped completely out like he was when he won that day on the Knavesmire.

Friday 19 April 2013

Educate at Newbury ...............................................................................................................................................................................


Educate – Newbury

When you analyse any race you start with your own first. And Educate certainly has plenty going for him in the race today.

I made no secret that he would have needed his first start at Doncaster. The fact he won was a massive bonus and somewhat of a surprise. His preparation was mistimed, the ground was plenty soft enough and, in truth, he probably shouldn’t have won.

If Boots and Spurs had kicked for home later, Educate would have finished second at best. No matter. He has improved both physically and mentally in the past three weeks. He has lost all the excess weight – his girth is now tightened two holes lower – and his piece of work last Friday under Liam Jones was his most impressive yet.

He quickened six lengths clear of Mubtadi (a fabulous work horse) who is on a five-timer. He flowed on his first piece of work on the grass. He doesn’t like the AW and his work (solely on the polytrack) leading into the Doncaster race was disappointing.

Mentally he is also more alert. Educate is naturally keen but he looks tremendous and there will be no excuses, granted a clear run. The drying ground will help enormously. He has twice won on soft but he travels much better on quicker ground; I have driven plenty mad about his favoured surface.

The race itself doesn’t appear as competitive as the number of runners would suggest. You have to respect Border Legend. He is lightly-raced and trained by a top notch handler. He would prefer more rain, though.

Global Village was unlucky in the Lincoln and was third in this race last year. The suspicion is that, at eight, Global Village isn’t going to improve much more and he did have a run prior to the feature at Doncaster. He is another that wouldn’t want the ground getting too quick.

Captain Bertie ran no sort of race at Doncaster under conditions that should have suited and he won this race last year on soft. He goes on better ground but is better with cut. The one I fear most is Guest Of Honour.

He has run two solid races this season, is back over his right trip of a mile and the drying ground will help, as will the expected fast pace. He is a big threat.

The plethora of speed in the event is a great help for Educate. The plan is to sit midfield with cover and, if possible, to hit the front at the furlong pole. The horse stays 10f and has a sharp 100/150 yard burst. His mark of 93 is very fair.

The Royal Hunt Cup has been the target since he won at York in October and that is still the plan. He will, though, have a run before Royal Ascot. Ismail feels he will need an outing in between.

Can you feel confident in a 25-runner field? Yes. This is a seriously good horse.

Tuesday 9 April 2013

Magic Lando at Nottingham.....................................................................................................................


Magic Lando

Maidens are always the most difficult to judge. Apart from having little form to work with there is also the concern of whether a horse has trained on.

Magic Lando makes his debut today having arrived from Richard Hannon’s in December. He never ran for Hannon after being injured in his first piece of work. In hindsight, being by Lando, it’s no bad thing that he didn’t race at two.

In truth, plenty will be learnt after today. He has been working ok – he did a really good piece with Educate but then not so good with Mubtadi - but had a little setback a few weeks ago which meant he missed a couple of pieces of work.

He is the most laid back horse I’ve seen in a while so he may well need the run. The trip will be his minimum but the ground will be fine and Joe Fanning is an ideal jockey for a horse first time out.

It’s not a strong race, though, and the obvious form choice is Luca Cumani’s Elhaame. I’m not sure, though, his form is worthy of a mark of 82; it’s based more on collateral form rather than the overall standard of his second in the Haydock maiden.

Luca’s reasoning is that he could win this easily and the handicap mark won’t alter because the handicapper expects to win easily. He is a colt with scope (he had a Royal Lodge entry last year) and the ground won’t be a problem.

Realistically, Elhaame should win this. Magic Lando does, however, have raw ability but until they run on a racecourse you never know how they will react to a whole new experience.

 

Sunday 7 April 2013

Admiralty at Wolverhampton ................................................


Admiralty – Wolverhampton

The race has cut up more than I thought it would and there isn’t as much depth to the race as it first appeared there might be when the original entries were published.

Admiralty had a slight problem with his knee after his last win – he had an issue with flexion for a couple of days – but it’s an on-going problem that hasn’t stopped him improving dramatically once we found his ideal trip and he has been fine for a while.

Tom Brown is back on board (he was banned when Joe Fanning won on him at Kempton), so, in effect, he still runs off 70  with Tom’s valuable 5lbs offsetting the rise of the same figure. More importantly, with the handicapper, who has been kind to Ismail’s horses this season, raising him only by that amount enables him to run once again in a 0-75.

I’m a great believer in keeping horses in the same grade if possible – he could have gone for a 0-80 last week – but he will earn a crack at a decent race at Ascot in a few weeks if he wins at Wolverhampton.

Tactically it’s a misnomer to suggest that Admiralty has to make the running. Tactics for Ismail’s horses are based around the potential pace in each individual race rather taking a one-dimensional approach. With Admiralty, he made the running the last twice because there was a lack of pace.

From stall one, Tom will have to press forward with him. If nobody else wants to go on that we will lead but if something else wants to take him on – based on the belief Admiralty needs to make the running – then Tom will let them go and sit handy.

Interestingly, after Joe Fanning won on him at Kempton he suggested the horse would be even better held up and ridden for a turn of foot. In truth, save Peace Seeker, there doesn’t appear to be any other front runner in the race.

Peace Seeker seemed to catch everybody’s eye when second at Wolverhampton three weeks ago after an eight month break. Yet, despite him running in better races – his last run was in a 0-80 – he has yet to win in any grade higher than a class 6.

Also, he has never really convinced over 7f. The other interesting element is how Peace Seeker will be ridden. He has made all when scoring over 5f and 6f but held up when beaten over 7f. Either way we will react to how he is ridden as he appears to be the main danger.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Educate took a while to recover from his race at Doncaster but is firmly on course for the Spring Cup at Newbury on Saturday week. He will come on a lot for the run and, despite it appearing I’m a broken record, you will see an even better horse on quicker ground.