Sunday, 7 April 2013

Admiralty at Wolverhampton ................................................

Admiralty – Wolverhampton

The race has cut up more than I thought it would and there isn’t as much depth to the race as it first appeared there might be when the original entries were published.

Admiralty had a slight problem with his knee after his last win – he had an issue with flexion for a couple of days – but it’s an on-going problem that hasn’t stopped him improving dramatically once we found his ideal trip and he has been fine for a while.

Tom Brown is back on board (he was banned when Joe Fanning won on him at Kempton), so, in effect, he still runs off 70  with Tom’s valuable 5lbs offsetting the rise of the same figure. More importantly, with the handicapper, who has been kind to Ismail’s horses this season, raising him only by that amount enables him to run once again in a 0-75.

I’m a great believer in keeping horses in the same grade if possible – he could have gone for a 0-80 last week – but he will earn a crack at a decent race at Ascot in a few weeks if he wins at Wolverhampton.

Tactically it’s a misnomer to suggest that Admiralty has to make the running. Tactics for Ismail’s horses are based around the potential pace in each individual race rather taking a one-dimensional approach. With Admiralty, he made the running the last twice because there was a lack of pace.

From stall one, Tom will have to press forward with him. If nobody else wants to go on that we will lead but if something else wants to take him on – based on the belief Admiralty needs to make the running – then Tom will let them go and sit handy.

Interestingly, after Joe Fanning won on him at Kempton he suggested the horse would be even better held up and ridden for a turn of foot. In truth, save Peace Seeker, there doesn’t appear to be any other front runner in the race.

Peace Seeker seemed to catch everybody’s eye when second at Wolverhampton three weeks ago after an eight month break. Yet, despite him running in better races – his last run was in a 0-80 – he has yet to win in any grade higher than a class 6.

Also, he has never really convinced over 7f. The other interesting element is how Peace Seeker will be ridden. He has made all when scoring over 5f and 6f but held up when beaten over 7f. Either way we will react to how he is ridden as he appears to be the main danger.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Educate took a while to recover from his race at Doncaster but is firmly on course for the Spring Cup at Newbury on Saturday week. He will come on a lot for the run and, despite it appearing I’m a broken record, you will see an even better horse on quicker ground.

1 comment:

  1. fantasic stuff terry really miss you on timeform radio.Will you ever be back on .i thought your honesty about educate was really refreshing i didnt back it after reading about it.Alas it won ill class as the one that got away.Ive been conkers deep on the other ishmail horses you flagged up you even predict how the horse will win and how the race will unfold have you a crystal ball.Also thomas browns a fantastic find isnt he .great blog many thanks ian in selby north yorks