Shamaal Nibras at Sandown .........................................................

Shamaal Nibras - Sandown, Thursday

Normally when I look at a race, a bit like when you turn over your exam paper, you scan the field and panic over whom you don't think you can beat. It's not the case here.

I think Shamaal Nibras will win. The fact he is 10-1 is the only surprise. The horse hasn't been in the yard for long but there is much in his favour. A drop of 2lbs, from a promising run at Goodwood (fro an awful draw), enables him to run in a 0-95 for the first time in a while, he acts on the ground and the step up again to a 1m is definitely in his favour.

Shamaal Nibras is a lovely big horse so his stride will be used more tonight than has often been the case with him in the past. There will be plenty of pace in the race with Spa's Dancer, the market leader, the worst drawn in 13, unless they come across to the stands rails.

Plenty of horses in this contest want further and the same number wouldn't want any more rain. I love this horse and his attitude. He really needs to win to cement his place in the Hunt Cup (he is probably too well handicapped now), a race that he would have a chance in.

Autumnus runs at Yarmouth ..........................................................................................................

Autumnus – Yarmouth

Autumnus claims a new record today by being the lowest grade horse on grass that Ismail has sent out since he started training last May. It’s a 0-55 race where the ambulance would be in the top three in the market. It’s terrible with plenty of horses who don’t want to win.

To be fair to Autumnus he has had problems. He has bled, had breathing problems and just for good measure it was decided that his days in the choir were numbered after he ran so poorly at Wolverhampton.

Blinkers have been added. He wears them at home all the time and they seem to help, but some days he works well and others he can’t be arsed. Joe Fanning is an ideal pilot. A horse like Autumnus doesn’t need much of an excuse to down tools and hitting him is a pointless exercise.

There is no doubt that he has ability – he spanked Light Burst one day at home on a going day – and he will be held up and hopefully enjoy being among the pack. He certainly didn’t like leading at Wolverhampton.

Would I have a bet in this race? Not a chance. Can he win? For sure. Will he win? No idea..........

Dubawi Fun at Southwell .................................................................................................................................

Dubawi Fun – Southwell

I’m pleased that we ducked going to Nottingham yesterday with Dubawi Fun . Windfast looks a useful juvenile, as do a few others in the race.  Probably wouldn’t have learnt much.

Dubawi Fun is Ismail’s first 2-y-o runner of the season and it’s hard to gauge how good he is as most of Ismail’s other juveniles are late season types. He has been working with older horses and holding his own. He presently wants to do everything at full speed and his breeding does suggests he will probably want at least 1m next season.

 Southwell is a good starting point. He is by Dubawi so the surface shouldn’t be a problem and the Fibresand may also not help the two market leaders who have decent rather than useful form. In truth, though, it’s a guessing game as to how he will go.

Pat Cosgrave has ridden him in most of his work and he likes him. The other unknown is how he will react going racing for the first time. He is like an excited schoolboy at home hopefully he won’t decide to become a school delinquent.

Light Burst at Lingfield....................................................................................

Light Burst – Lingfield

This race was originally earmarked for Brighton. The plan being that Light Burst was going to have his next few runs on the turf after his win at Southwell. We are forced to come here because it fits in with a race plan geared towards Royal Ascot.

My main worry about the switch was that it would be a much better race - not many fancy Brighton – but the race has in fact cut up. It was pleasing that Noseda decided to take Noctum to Windsor on Monday. The surface won’t be a worry and his handicap mark is fine for a progressing horse.

When Light Burst won at Southwell he was short of work and saw plenty of daylight. Today, with at least three front runners, the plan is to get cover and attack from the furlong pole. The horse is a strong traveller but lengthens rather than quickens.

Tom Brown is a massive bonus and his claim extremely handy. Light Burst has already run well in this grade, finishing third at Wolverhampton after a break, and the race is chock full of horses dropping in class after disappointing.

Main danger, for me, is Johnno. He is drawn to attack from stall one and he was a progressive handicapper last season in this class. He has been gelded since his last race, but he has been absent since August and there are other front runners to unsettle.

If Light Burst wins here he will go to Doncaster (he will have to win there as well) in three weeks time before hopefully a crack at the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. We have an excellent chance  in a race that could have had more depth.

Alhaarth Beauty runs at Catterick and news of Educate.........................................................................................................................

Alhaarth Beauty – Catterick

The key to this race is Alhaarth Beauty herself. When you profile a race you start with the horse that you most expect to win. In this case it’s Alhaarth Beauty.

Taking the positives first. Her form is the best on offer even if the last run at Wolverhampton raised question marks over her temperament. She should have won but her head came up in the air when she came under pressure, even with the sheepskin noseband on.

It was her first race for four months (although she was fit enough) and her previous display against Space Artist (since a winner of a 0-80 handicap at Bath) would win this. The return to grass will also help (she worked well on it last weekend) and the rattling fast ground is ideal.

And, yet, it’s her work at home that clouds her chance. This is no doubt if she reproduces her gallop form this would be a formality. Twice she dismissed Light Burst (rated 84) , admittedly over 5f, without turning a hair. The concern is that her head is nearly always low and straight in homework, suggesting she likes the solitude of home.

She could be a morning glory. We have changed a couple of things and have also put on Tom Brown. He claims a valuable five pounds and hopefully will be able to settle her in front on a track that is suited for speed. She handled Goodwood ok so the contours shouldn’t be a problem.

You have to respect the chance of Shirley’s Pride who won on her debut for Mick Appleby and looks to have improved and James Tate’s Free Island has speed but is quirky. But, in truth, Alhaarth Beauty is a grade above these if she deems to perform.

Tom will attempt to make all and, like Mubtadi, she won't be hit. It appears to a mental issue with her. Liam Jones didn't hit her last time but the head still came up. Today is certainly a defining moment for her.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Educate is fine after Newbury. The run in context is perplexing. Haaf  A Sixpence had finished behind him at Doncaster with the benefit of two runs.  The ground wouldn’t have been a problem but he ran no sort of race.

Ismail is keen to get another run into him and it looks likely he will go to Lingfield on May 11. He will step back up to 10f, a trip he won over at York, and he will be dropped completely out like he was when he won that day on the Knavesmire.

Educate at Newbury ...............................................................................................................................................................................

Educate – Newbury

When you analyse any race you start with your own first. And Educate certainly has plenty going for him in the race today.

I made no secret that he would have needed his first start at Doncaster. The fact he won was a massive bonus and somewhat of a surprise. His preparation was mistimed, the ground was plenty soft enough and, in truth, he probably shouldn’t have won.

If Boots and Spurs had kicked for home later, Educate would have finished second at best. No matter. He has improved both physically and mentally in the past three weeks. He has lost all the excess weight – his girth is now tightened two holes lower – and his piece of work last Friday under Liam Jones was his most impressive yet.

He quickened six lengths clear of Mubtadi (a fabulous work horse) who is on a five-timer. He flowed on his first piece of work on the grass. He doesn’t like the AW and his work (solely on the polytrack) leading into the Doncaster race was disappointing.

Mentally he is also more alert. Educate is naturally keen but he looks tremendous and there will be no excuses, granted a clear run. The drying ground will help enormously. He has twice won on soft but he travels much better on quicker ground; I have driven plenty mad about his favoured surface.

The race itself doesn’t appear as competitive as the number of runners would suggest. You have to respect Border Legend. He is lightly-raced and trained by a top notch handler. He would prefer more rain, though.

Global Village was unlucky in the Lincoln and was third in this race last year. The suspicion is that, at eight, Global Village isn’t going to improve much more and he did have a run prior to the feature at Doncaster. He is another that wouldn’t want the ground getting too quick.

Captain Bertie ran no sort of race at Doncaster under conditions that should have suited and he won this race last year on soft. He goes on better ground but is better with cut. The one I fear most is Guest Of Honour.

He has run two solid races this season, is back over his right trip of a mile and the drying ground will help, as will the expected fast pace. He is a big threat.

The plethora of speed in the event is a great help for Educate. The plan is to sit midfield with cover and, if possible, to hit the front at the furlong pole. The horse stays 10f and has a sharp 100/150 yard burst. His mark of 93 is very fair.

The Royal Hunt Cup has been the target since he won at York in October and that is still the plan. He will, though, have a run before Royal Ascot. Ismail feels he will need an outing in between.

Can you feel confident in a 25-runner field? Yes. This is a seriously good horse.

Magic Lando at Nottingham.....................................................................................................................

Magic Lando

Maidens are always the most difficult to judge. Apart from having little form to work with there is also the concern of whether a horse has trained on.

Magic Lando makes his debut today having arrived from Richard Hannon’s in December. He never ran for Hannon after being injured in his first piece of work. In hindsight, being by Lando, it’s no bad thing that he didn’t race at two.

In truth, plenty will be learnt after today. He has been working ok – he did a really good piece with Educate but then not so good with Mubtadi - but had a little setback a few weeks ago which meant he missed a couple of pieces of work.

He is the most laid back horse I’ve seen in a while so he may well need the run. The trip will be his minimum but the ground will be fine and Joe Fanning is an ideal jockey for a horse first time out.

It’s not a strong race, though, and the obvious form choice is Luca Cumani’s Elhaame. I’m not sure, though, his form is worthy of a mark of 82; it’s based more on collateral form rather than the overall standard of his second in the Haydock maiden.

Luca’s reasoning is that he could win this easily and the handicap mark won’t alter because the handicapper expects to win easily. He is a colt with scope (he had a Royal Lodge entry last year) and the ground won’t be a problem.

Realistically, Elhaame should win this. Magic Lando does, however, have raw ability but until they run on a racecourse you never know how they will react to a whole new experience.

 

Admiralty at Wolverhampton ................................................

Admiralty – Wolverhampton

The race has cut up more than I thought it would and there isn’t as much depth to the race as it first appeared there might be when the original entries were published.

Admiralty had a slight problem with his knee after his last win – he had an issue with flexion for a couple of days – but it’s an on-going problem that hasn’t stopped him improving dramatically once we found his ideal trip and he has been fine for a while.

Tom Brown is back on board (he was banned when Joe Fanning won on him at Kempton), so, in effect, he still runs off 70  with Tom’s valuable 5lbs offsetting the rise of the same figure. More importantly, with the handicapper, who has been kind to Ismail’s horses this season, raising him only by that amount enables him to run once again in a 0-75.

I’m a great believer in keeping horses in the same grade if possible – he could have gone for a 0-80 last week – but he will earn a crack at a decent race at Ascot in a few weeks if he wins at Wolverhampton.

Tactically it’s a misnomer to suggest that Admiralty has to make the running. Tactics for Ismail’s horses are based around the potential pace in each individual race rather taking a one-dimensional approach. With Admiralty, he made the running the last twice because there was a lack of pace.

From stall one, Tom will have to press forward with him. If nobody else wants to go on that we will lead but if something else wants to take him on – based on the belief Admiralty needs to make the running – then Tom will let them go and sit handy.

Interestingly, after Joe Fanning won on him at Kempton he suggested the horse would be even better held up and ridden for a turn of foot. In truth, save Peace Seeker, there doesn’t appear to be any other front runner in the race.

Peace Seeker seemed to catch everybody’s eye when second at Wolverhampton three weeks ago after an eight month break. Yet, despite him running in better races – his last run was in a 0-80 – he has yet to win in any grade higher than a class 6.

Also, he has never really convinced over 7f. The other interesting element is how Peace Seeker will be ridden. He has made all when scoring over 5f and 6f but held up when beaten over 7f. Either way we will react to how he is ridden as he appears to be the main danger.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Educate took a while to recover from his race at Doncaster but is firmly on course for the Spring Cup at Newbury on Saturday week. He will come on a lot for the run and, despite it appearing I’m a broken record, you will see an even better horse on quicker ground.

Educate in the Spring Mile at Doncaster................................................................

Educate at Doncaster

I try to be as honest as I can when I do these blogs. My opinion, therefore, about Educate in the Spring Mile is that I don’t really know what to expect.

He was progressing at a rapid rate of knots at the end of last season. He surprised everybody by winning on heavy ground at York in October, including Jamie Spencer who said he hated it, and he has had the Lincoln/Spring Mile on the agenda since then.

He has been slow to come to hand, however, and if the race was run last week he would have struggled and the race may still come too soon on ground that will be far from ideal; he will be more effective on fast. His chance has also been compromised by the fact he hasn’t been working that well.

This is where the chicken and egg saying is appropriate. Has he been working poorly because he is short of peak fitness or is it because he doesn’t like the AW. Echo of Light’s have a terrible record on all types of AW surfaces and we wouldn’t run Educate on it in a race.

Yet, because all the grass gallops are still shut, he has been doing all his prep work on the Polytrack. There is no doubt he will improve for the run and his long –term goal is the Royal Hunt Cup. He will, however, have to rise at least another 10lbs to get in at the Festival.

Primarily, he will be kept to a 1m, on a straight track and, hopefully, fast ground. He can take a tug so plenty of pace and cover are his ideal requirements. He is assured of nearly all of those at Doncaster apart from the ground.

And it’s encouraging that he goes well fresh and his improvement was so swift. He is also amazingly well handicapped with leading fancy, Nameitwhatyoulike, even allowing for the fact that rival didn’t stay the 10f in his race at York.

It would be a major boost for the yard to land this  but I’m certainly more hopeful than confident given that he hasn’t been giving that many positive signals.

Alhaarth Beauty - Wolverhampton.......................................................

Alhaarth Beauty ­ - Wolverhampton

There is no secret in the way that she will be ridden. Her main asset is her speed and she will attempt to make all. Her previous form already sets a decent standard.

Space Artist, whom she had off the bridle after two furlongs, beat her just under two lengths on her last start. He went on to win a 0-75 handicap on his next run. On his comeback appearance at Southwell, Space Artist finished second off 76 in a 0-85 handicap.

The winter break has made a difference to Alhaarth Beauty. She has grown, is more settled and a fitting of a sheepskin noseband now means that her head carriage is lower. Her homework also suggests that not only has she trained on but improved.

The filly has worked with Light Burst in her last two pieces. The first one was good but the second was even better. Even allowing for the fact that Light Burst is more of a 6f/7f horse, he is rated 84 – officially some 18lbs above her.

I’m confident she will beat the older horses and those that have run this year but the unknown runner is David Barron’s A J Cook. He didn’t show a great deal last season in two decent maidens – both on turf – and his half brother’s best run on the AW was on Fibresand over 7f in a claimer in France.

A J Cook has been gelded, though, and may have also improved a lot from two to three. I don’t know. It could that A J Cook will have improved enough to beat Alhaarth Beauty but I suspect he will have to run to a mark of around 75 if he is to. Not sure he is capable of that over 5f.

 

 

 

Mubtadi at Lingfield .....................................................

Mubtadi – Lingfield Monday

Being a pragmatist is vital when placing horses. You should instantly know when looking at the entries of a race whether you genuinely feel, injuries or setbacks aside, you have a decent chance of success.

As soon as the 5-day decs came out for Mubtadi’s event at Lingfield I was happy. He has been a revelation since a few things were tweaked, most noticeably his balls! He is a much sweeter animal and his work at home has been quite amazing.

On form, this step into a 0-70 represents his hardest task to date. this season.  He is also creeping up the handicap. Yet there is plenty to suggest he is still ahead of the handicapper. He was running in 0-80’s last summer when he was having issues with his knee and was still an entire.

He is still only rated 67 (13lbs below a mark he has run well off) and his homework has improved each week. He ran all over Educate in a gallop a couple of weeks ago and then dismissed the promising Magic Lando last Friday with contemptuous ease.

Tactic-wise he is also much more versatile now and the step up to 10f has helped. He made virtually all on his first two starts this season but was held up when winning even easier last time at Wolverhampton.

With three potential front runners in the race those tactics are likely to be employed again, especially as he has a lovely draw in stall 2. Star apprentice Tom Brown has struck up an amazing understanding with Mubtadi and he is now the only jockey that the owner wants to ride him. He rides him perfectly.

There isn’t anything else in the race that is handicapped to be a major worry and the plan is to run Mubtadi back at Yarmouth next Monday with a penalty, if the ground isn’t on the slow side, if he wins at Lingfield.

This will be Mubtadi’s final run on the AW for a while. He is another horse I expect to improve even more once he confronts a fast turf surface.

 

Update on Admiralty, Mubtadi, Educate and Magic Lando. Beth Tweddle

Admiralty should hopefully be back on the track within a few weeks after a x-ray revealed that the injury to his knee is not as serious as was first feared.

He was set to reappear at Kempton on Wednesday over 6f, a distance I’m convinced he will be even better over, but was sore after a gallop on Saturday. He has had problems with his knees before but this time he couldn’t flex it.

The good news is that after medication – his knee can have a full service – he will come back as good as new. He has been earmarked for a race at Wolverhampton on April 8 over 7f.

Mubtadi, who I want to keep for a race at Yarmouth in early April, will reappear at Lingfield on March 25 if the ground looks likely to come up soft on the turf. He will stay over 1m 2f as it suits his style of running and tempo. He should be able to win at least another couple.

Educate continues his build up to the Lincoln with a workout tomorrow (Tuesday) but the reality is that he will probably end up in the consolation race. We need 30 to come out which realistically isn’t going to happen. He wouldn’t want the ground too soft but is an exceptionally nice horse.

New horses will be arriving within the next few weeks but the horse I’m looking forward to seeing is the unraced Magic Lando. The son of Manduro was injured in his first gallop for Richard Hannon. He so laid back that it’s hard to get a handle on him.

Magic Lando, however, is well bred and makes his intended debut at Nottingham, over a 1m, on April 10.

Dancing On Ice is the only reality show that I bet on. Invariably, the best skater wins the event and from an early stage you can narrow the field down to around three after the first couple of weeks.

Beth Tweddle’s victory, following on from Sam Attwater and Mathew Wolfenden, means I have backed the winner for the last three years. I had backed Beth ever since the line-up has been announced in November.

In truth, I did think, especially when Matt Lapinskas went to 1.32 when the market was suspended, that she was going to finish runner-up. Matt consistently got better scores and stronger praise from the judges (hopefully the cavity-inducing Ashley Roberts will be ejected for next year) but for me wasn’t the better skater.

A victory for Matt would also have been a travesty seeing he should have been eliminated in the skate-off with Shayne Ward when he stumbled and touched the ice where, to be fair, Jason Gardiner did say he should go.

It’s an event well worth having a punt on. The downside is that you have to wait four months to get paid.!!

 

Updated news from Ismail Mohammed's

IT has been a fantastic week for Revida Place. Three winners from three runners is something that I hoped for but rarely does it all come together. It means Ismail has now had five winners from six runners in 2013. The only setback was Autumnus, who has since been gelded for his mulish display at Wolverhampton!!.

Mubtadi’s hat-trick victory at Wolverhampton on Monday gave me immense personal satisfaction as most had written him off including our head lad. Gelding him has altered his attitude and so has the change of tactics, but pairing him with Tom Brown has been the cherry.

I have bored everybody senseless of how highly I rate the apprentice from Andrew Balding’s but his handling of Mubtadi and, indeed, Light Burst has been superb. He is very good judge of pace and listens and absorbs information.

Hopefully, he will be latched on to by a trainer looking to use the best 5lb claimer riding. He is a good talker and always wants to improve. He even thought he gave Light Burst a bad ride when winning at Southwell.

Light Burst blew up at Southwell but his class saw him through. He will improve a lot from the run. His ideal conditions will be a fast turf surface over 7f and there is a race at Brighton on April 25 which he will aim for as long as he is not raised above 85. He won’t be easy to place unless he improves again.

The intention with Mubtadi is to try and extend the sequence of wins to as many as possible. His handicap mark suggests that will be possible. His success on Monday – when he stepped up to 1m2f – was off 62. He has run well of 81 in the past.

I would be surprised if he was raised more than 5lbs for winning at Wolves seeing he won by less than a length. We found out over 10f that we can ride him for a turn of foot or make the running over a 1m.

Mubtadi will now have a short break and come back for the turf. He does need it fast and he, too, will go to Brighton. There is a 0-70 at the track on April 1. He won there as a 3-y-o with David Simcock.

Admiralty continued his rise up the grades with an impressive victory at Kempton. He is a lovely big horse that has the speed to win over 6f but has, so far, produced his best form over 7f. Joe (Fanning) said he felt he could also be ridden from behind, such is his cruising speed. That will give plenty more options.

The handicapper will produce his new mark on Tuesday. He is not a horse that has run well on the turf, although both races were on soft ground. So the plan is to keep him to the AW and pick the races carefully. I love him.

Educate will have his racecourse gallop at Lingfield on March 2 and then we will know where we stand in terms of his preparation for the Lincoln on March 23. He has strengthened up over the winter and Jamie Spencer liked him a lot when he won on him at York.

There is an ambition plan this year for Educate, who will run in the consolation race if he doesn’t get into the Lincoln. Liam Jones, who is back from India on March 5, will ride him if not required by William Haggas for Nine Realms.

We will have a strong team of jockeys this year. Tom Brown will ride plenty of the handicappers, Liam will ride Educate and Alhaarth Beauty and hopefully Shane Kelly will like to stay with the unraced Magic Lando after he rides him at work tomorrow.

The new recruits are primed to arrive at Revida Place and they will come when Ismail is back from the Dubai Carnival. I have been promised there are a few nice ones there!!!.

 

 

 

 

Admiralty at Kempton ....................................................................................................

Admiralty - Kempton

Admiralty is none the worst for his spill at Southwell when he slipped over coming on to the course and ran loose for five minutes. He was fine but the decision to withdraw was unanimous in light of what had happened.

He is back over 7f for which in essence is his first race in four months. In truth, he has been ready to run for over a month but a series of minor blips; a pricked foot, snow at Kempton and then the fall at Southwell.

Like Light Burst, the rest was purely because he needed a break. He is a horse that has been a case of a work in progress. I think we are finally there. We seem to have cured his slow starts, 7f is probably his ideal trip (although he will try 6f in time) and he is best with forcing tactics.

This is a weak 0-75. Indeed, if the race hadn't be re-offered, The Guru of Gloom wouldn't be in the line-up. You have to respect his chance seeing he has won in this grade and has only been raised 3lbs.

Admiralty is up in grade but he has improved a lot and, even though he is drawn in seven, the most pertinent thing is that he is the sole speed in the race. He is a horse with a high cruising speed and, with Tom Brown banned, Joe Fanning takes over and there are not many better judges from the front.

Teds Brother caught the eye on his return from a break when just behind Jake The Snake. Both, however, need a strong gallop, along with  Master Mylo and The Guru of Gloom. The intention will be not to do that.

Terry

Light Burst runs at Southwell..........Mubtadi gains a hat-trick

Light Burst - Southwell Feb 19

He is a horse that is probably now at the upper end of his handicap mark. The switch to Fibresand and the booking of Tom Brown to claim a valuable 5lbs is something I've done to try and squeeze some improvement.

That said, this an easier race than his last two starts - both in 0-85 - and he is a horse bred to go on the surface. His sire was a top class dirt horse and, although all three of his progeny have been beaten at Southwell, all three have travelled well on it.

It's not a strong race. Abi Scarlet, though 3-3 at the track, has been in awful form and I'm not convinced that she stays 7f. Add to the fact she was entered in the seller on the card suggests all is not well. You do have to respect Piceno on the surface, though.

The key for Scott Dixon's runner is that he is the sole speed. Tactically, it is a tricky race for Tom. Light Burst will travel well and I don't  mind the draw in nine, but he can be keen and does need some cover, that may mean he might get kickback in the process.

But with Tom's claim (a very useful 5lbs) he is effectively only running 4lb above his 8 length win at Brighton. The 3 month break was at the request of the owner. He has been fine and does run well fresh. Can he win? Yes. Do I think he will? Hopefully, ;-)

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Mubtadi's hat-trick today has been a testimony to forward planning, a gelding operation and three superb rides from Tom Brown. I do all the tactics, but they still have to be carried out. Brown, barely 21, has done it perfectly three times.

Andrew Balding's apprentice is 4-4 for Ismail and, is in my mind, one of the top three apprentices in Britain. His tactical awareness for one so young is astounding. His relationship with Mubtadi is like coffee and cream.

Mubtadi was a nutcase before his gelding operation. Now, after also changing tactics and how he works at home, you couldn't wish to meet a nicer horse. He is still way below his mark of 80 and he is a much happier horse as well.

We also now use the blindfold to avoid missing the break, and the step up to 1m 2f gives us more options. He can make the running or come from behind. He is likely to only go up around 5lbs for today which will still leave him on a tasty 67.

Mubtadi will have a short break, but is earmarked for a 0-70 at Brighton in April over 10 furlongs at a track he has already won at. So pleased for horse and jockey, and, of course, Ismail

Terry

Mubtadi runs at Wolverhampton.............................................................................................

Mubtadi – Wolves Feb 18

Mubtadi has turned the corner - he was going to the sales at the beginning of the year - via being gelded and a few tweaks with his training programme and also a change of tactics.

His two victories have shown him to be a different horse from early January after that frustrating night at Wolves. The step up to a 1m has helped and getting him into a rhythm has also been key. The addition of Tom Brown has also proved a masterstroke.

Today is another step up the grading ladder (he moves back into a 0-65) and he also moves up to 10f. The trip won't be a problem. Both his recent races showed him to be strong at the end and his breeding also indicates he will stay fine.

Four of his half brothers have won over 10f and his full brother, Dubai's  Touch, was just beat over the trip at Lingfield. As for the grade, he ran well in a 0-85 at Newbury last year when he was still an entire and had an attitude problem.

Tactics may have to be altered. There are two other front runners in the contest, Yeomanoftheguard and West End Lad, but he doesn't need to lead, just get into a rhythmn that has served him so well.

You have to respect Fly Haaf, making his handicap debut and well related, although his run in his last maiden doesn't suggest he is thrown in. I would be more afraid of Thereabouts. He has run well in better races and the trainer is in form. He has yet to win a race but the rise in trip also promises to help.

It has been a deliberate ploy to take things slowly with Mubtadi, he is a like a pupil who has started to stay in and do his homework but you know at any time he could go out on a bender if you push him too hard.

This grade is well within his compass. His homework and his behaviour at home suggests he still ready to try and pass his next exam. His reward will be a well earned break until April, and fast turf, if he is successful.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

News on Admiralty ...................................................................................................

Admiralty is fine after his fall today at Southwell and will reappear at Kempton on Thursday week (Feb 21) over 7f. It's not an ideal situation being a 0-75 in what is likely to be a tougher field than today.

It was frustrating today as it appeared to be an ideal race with the guarantee of speed. The front runners didn't disappoint as Alpha Tauri and Point North went through the first 2f in a suicidal 24.25sec. It would have been ideal for Admiralty.

It was an instant decision to withdraw him. There is no knowing for a couple of days whether there is any bruising - he took a heavy tumble -  and I'm confident those that backed him wouldn't have been pleased to see him run. He at least had a decent 4f blow out.
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Part of the problem was that the horse is very fresh. He has been ready to run for a month but a pricked foot and then the cancellation of Kempton because of snow meant his return had been put on hold.

He is a much improved horse who in time, I'm confident, will prove even better over 6f. In the short term he will run at Kempton next Thursday and then return to the Sudbury track on March 4 for another contest over 7f

Admiralty runs at Southwell and news on Educate's preparation for Lincoln

Admiralty steps into the unknown at Southwell in terms of class and trip. He has always struck me as  a horse that would be suited by a drop to 6f. He has a high cruising speed and readily dismissed Fortrose Academy when he won on his last start at Wolverhampton in October.

The Andrew Balding horse then won on the bridle over 6f at Kempton. Don’t think the 5lbs rise is a problem as he is big horse with more improvement. Tactics will be changed, though, as we won’t be able to make the running.

There was no reason for his absence other than he needed a rest. He has been ready to run for a while but a pricked foot meant he had to miss a race at Wolves while Kempton was then cancelled because of the snow.

I must admit I’m surprised Hab Reeh is favourite. The horse has been winning in 0-55’s, is up another 6lbs, hasn’t looked entirely at home on Fibresand and will get taken on for the lead.

With Southwell being a specialist track I would be more afraid of Caldercruix and Masai Moon. Both horses travel much better on the Fibresand and, while Masai Moon has been in better form on the Polytrack, both horses will step up on this surface.

It’s a tough race but Admiralty is improving, has an excellent young jockey in Tom Brown, and will go on the surface. The only query is whether he will be as good, or even better, over this shorter trip. Hopefully, the answer will be yes.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Educate has been back in full training for a while now and will have a racecourse gallop in early March in preparation for his bid at the William Hill Lincoln on March 23. He will definitely run at Doncaster.

If he fails to get into the big race he will take in the consolation event. The weights are published on February 14 and, after the first elimination stage on March 2, we will have a fair idea of whether he will get a slot in the race.

Educate has grown since his win at York in October and, even though is he is now a four-year-old, he has had just seven starts. He was impressive on heavy ground over 10f at York but will be more effective over a strongly run 1m on decent ground.

We have an ambitious plan for him, culminating mid-season in hopefully a crack at the Royal Hunt Cup. He has to improve another 10lbs to be competitive but he made rapid improvement on his last two starts and both Liam Jones and Jamie Spencer liked him a lot

Reflections on the two wins by Mubtadi and the disappointment of Autumnus

It has been a good couple of weeks overall. And it was particularly satisfying to see Mubtadi score twice in a week. Ever since I took on the job as race planner to Ismail, the one horse that had put a dent in the percentages had been this son of Dr Fong.

Admittedly, he was sick after he ran at Redcar but slow breaks at Southwell and Wolverhampton posed plenty of problems, the basic one being the horse is too smart. He recently got loose on the gallops; found the gates locked on his return so he decided to nip next door to James Tate’s.

Mubtadi was gelded after Southwell but still behaved like an entire. He tried to bite, kick and acted like the school bully. What was changed, and it has succeeded, was to treat him with respect. All the headgear (tried in a visor, blinkers and a hood) were removed, as was the tongue tie.

He started working on his own and tactics were changed to make the running.  It has worked perfectly twice under two super rides from Tom Brown. It’s not often I praise jockeys, but Brown, who is criminally underused at Andrew Balding’s, is a star apprentice in the making.

It’s not often a jockey, let alone an apprentice, not only listens to instructions but carries then out. Brown has brought out the best in Mubtadi and the horse in him. The 21-year-old is now starting to make a name for himself and will pick up plenty of rides for Ismail.

It wasn’t all good, though, with the disappointing run of Autumnus. After a promising return from a five-month break, I thought he would win last week at Wolverhampton. Instead, he downed tools from an early stage and, though Shane Kelly got him to the front, he never travelled with any fluency. He soon gave up when challenged.

Disappointments are always laying in wait, but the problems that had beset Autumnus hadn’t returned so the only conclusion is that it’s in his head. He will now go to the sales but the good news is that the owner of Mubtadi has decided to keep him.

Runners are thin on the ground for the next week. Admiralty, twice denied a run, is likely to wait for a race at Southwell in two weeks, a surface he has ran well on in the past, while Light Burst is due back from a break in around three weeks.

Recent reflections from the two victories of Mubtadi and the disappointment of Autumnus

Recent reflections: Mubtadi scoring twice and the disappointment of Autumnus

 

It has been a good couple of weeks overall. And it was particularly satisfying to see Mubtadi score twice in a week. Ever since I took on the job as race planner to Ismail, the one horse that had put a dent in the percentages had been this son of Dr Fong.

Admittedly, he was sick after he ran at Redcar but slow breaks at Southwell and Wolverhampton posed plenty of problems, the basic one being the horse is too smart. He recently got loose on the gallops; found the gates locked on his return so he decided to nip next door to James Tate’s.

Mubtadi was gelded after Southwell but still behaved like an entire. He tried to bite, kick and acted like the school bully. What was changed, and it has succeeded, was to treat him with respect. All the headgear (tried in a visor, blinkers and a hood) were removed, as was the tongue tie.

He started working on his own and tactics were changed to make the running.  It has worked perfectly twice under two super rides from Tom Brown. It’s not often I praise jockeys, but Brown, who is criminally underused at Andrew Balding’s, is a star apprentice in the making.

It’s not often a jockey, let alone an apprentice, not only listens to instructions but carries then out. Brown has brought out the best in Mubtadi and the horse in him. The 21-year-old is now starting to make a name for himself and will pick up plenty of rides for Ismail.

It wasn’t all good, though, with the disappointing run of Autumnus. After a promising return from a five-month break, I thought he would win last week at Wolverhampton. Instead, he downed tools from an early stage and, though Shane Kelly got him to the front, he never travelled with any fluency. He soon gave up when challenged.

Disappointments are always laying in wait, but the problems that had beset Autumnus hadn’t returned so the only conclusion is that it’s in his head. He will now go to the sales but the good news is that the owner of Mubtadi has decided to keep him.

Runners are thin on the ground for the next week. Admiralty, twice denied a run, is likely to wait for a race at Southwell in two weeks, a surface he has ran well on in the past, while Light Burst is due back from a break in around three weeks.

ADMIRALTY runs at Wolverhampton tomorrow. Here are my thoughts

Admiralty

It’s an interesting race. There are both positives and negatives with him. The negatives are that it’s his first race since Oct, he runs over 6f for the first time (which I think will suit him) and he has to prove that he will pass horses from behind.

In the past he hasn't seemed too keen which is why he made the running last time. He certainly won't lead with Greenstead High and Celtic Sixpence in the field. Yet, judged on his win over Fortrose Academy (since a winner over 6f), I think 6f will suit ideally, especially if they go quick. He has a high cruising speed.

On the plus side, there isn’t a horse in the race that is in particularly good form, and the value of his win has worked out well and he is only 5lbs higher.

He has a perfect draw in stall one and will wear the blindfold in the stalls like he did when he won last time. He has impressed the staff at home since his break and he is still an unexposed horse.