Educate at Newbury ...............................................................................................................................................................................

Educate – Newbury

When you analyse any race you start with your own first. And Educate certainly has plenty going for him in the race today.

I made no secret that he would have needed his first start at Doncaster. The fact he won was a massive bonus and somewhat of a surprise. His preparation was mistimed, the ground was plenty soft enough and, in truth, he probably shouldn’t have won.

If Boots and Spurs had kicked for home later, Educate would have finished second at best. No matter. He has improved both physically and mentally in the past three weeks. He has lost all the excess weight – his girth is now tightened two holes lower – and his piece of work last Friday under Liam Jones was his most impressive yet.

He quickened six lengths clear of Mubtadi (a fabulous work horse) who is on a five-timer. He flowed on his first piece of work on the grass. He doesn’t like the AW and his work (solely on the polytrack) leading into the Doncaster race was disappointing.

Mentally he is also more alert. Educate is naturally keen but he looks tremendous and there will be no excuses, granted a clear run. The drying ground will help enormously. He has twice won on soft but he travels much better on quicker ground; I have driven plenty mad about his favoured surface.

The race itself doesn’t appear as competitive as the number of runners would suggest. You have to respect Border Legend. He is lightly-raced and trained by a top notch handler. He would prefer more rain, though.

Global Village was unlucky in the Lincoln and was third in this race last year. The suspicion is that, at eight, Global Village isn’t going to improve much more and he did have a run prior to the feature at Doncaster. He is another that wouldn’t want the ground getting too quick.

Captain Bertie ran no sort of race at Doncaster under conditions that should have suited and he won this race last year on soft. He goes on better ground but is better with cut. The one I fear most is Guest Of Honour.

He has run two solid races this season, is back over his right trip of a mile and the drying ground will help, as will the expected fast pace. He is a big threat.

The plethora of speed in the event is a great help for Educate. The plan is to sit midfield with cover and, if possible, to hit the front at the furlong pole. The horse stays 10f and has a sharp 100/150 yard burst. His mark of 93 is very fair.

The Royal Hunt Cup has been the target since he won at York in October and that is still the plan. He will, though, have a run before Royal Ascot. Ismail feels he will need an outing in between.

Can you feel confident in a 25-runner field? Yes. This is a seriously good horse.

Magic Lando at Nottingham.....................................................................................................................

Magic Lando

Maidens are always the most difficult to judge. Apart from having little form to work with there is also the concern of whether a horse has trained on.

Magic Lando makes his debut today having arrived from Richard Hannon’s in December. He never ran for Hannon after being injured in his first piece of work. In hindsight, being by Lando, it’s no bad thing that he didn’t race at two.

In truth, plenty will be learnt after today. He has been working ok – he did a really good piece with Educate but then not so good with Mubtadi - but had a little setback a few weeks ago which meant he missed a couple of pieces of work.

He is the most laid back horse I’ve seen in a while so he may well need the run. The trip will be his minimum but the ground will be fine and Joe Fanning is an ideal jockey for a horse first time out.

It’s not a strong race, though, and the obvious form choice is Luca Cumani’s Elhaame. I’m not sure, though, his form is worthy of a mark of 82; it’s based more on collateral form rather than the overall standard of his second in the Haydock maiden.

Luca’s reasoning is that he could win this easily and the handicap mark won’t alter because the handicapper expects to win easily. He is a colt with scope (he had a Royal Lodge entry last year) and the ground won’t be a problem.

Realistically, Elhaame should win this. Magic Lando does, however, have raw ability but until they run on a racecourse you never know how they will react to a whole new experience.

 

Admiralty at Wolverhampton ................................................

Admiralty – Wolverhampton

The race has cut up more than I thought it would and there isn’t as much depth to the race as it first appeared there might be when the original entries were published.

Admiralty had a slight problem with his knee after his last win – he had an issue with flexion for a couple of days – but it’s an on-going problem that hasn’t stopped him improving dramatically once we found his ideal trip and he has been fine for a while.

Tom Brown is back on board (he was banned when Joe Fanning won on him at Kempton), so, in effect, he still runs off 70  with Tom’s valuable 5lbs offsetting the rise of the same figure. More importantly, with the handicapper, who has been kind to Ismail’s horses this season, raising him only by that amount enables him to run once again in a 0-75.

I’m a great believer in keeping horses in the same grade if possible – he could have gone for a 0-80 last week – but he will earn a crack at a decent race at Ascot in a few weeks if he wins at Wolverhampton.

Tactically it’s a misnomer to suggest that Admiralty has to make the running. Tactics for Ismail’s horses are based around the potential pace in each individual race rather taking a one-dimensional approach. With Admiralty, he made the running the last twice because there was a lack of pace.

From stall one, Tom will have to press forward with him. If nobody else wants to go on that we will lead but if something else wants to take him on – based on the belief Admiralty needs to make the running – then Tom will let them go and sit handy.

Interestingly, after Joe Fanning won on him at Kempton he suggested the horse would be even better held up and ridden for a turn of foot. In truth, save Peace Seeker, there doesn’t appear to be any other front runner in the race.

Peace Seeker seemed to catch everybody’s eye when second at Wolverhampton three weeks ago after an eight month break. Yet, despite him running in better races – his last run was in a 0-80 – he has yet to win in any grade higher than a class 6.

Also, he has never really convinced over 7f. The other interesting element is how Peace Seeker will be ridden. He has made all when scoring over 5f and 6f but held up when beaten over 7f. Either way we will react to how he is ridden as he appears to be the main danger.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Educate took a while to recover from his race at Doncaster but is firmly on course for the Spring Cup at Newbury on Saturday week. He will come on a lot for the run and, despite it appearing I’m a broken record, you will see an even better horse on quicker ground.

Educate in the Spring Mile at Doncaster................................................................

Educate at Doncaster

I try to be as honest as I can when I do these blogs. My opinion, therefore, about Educate in the Spring Mile is that I don’t really know what to expect.

He was progressing at a rapid rate of knots at the end of last season. He surprised everybody by winning on heavy ground at York in October, including Jamie Spencer who said he hated it, and he has had the Lincoln/Spring Mile on the agenda since then.

He has been slow to come to hand, however, and if the race was run last week he would have struggled and the race may still come too soon on ground that will be far from ideal; he will be more effective on fast. His chance has also been compromised by the fact he hasn’t been working that well.

This is where the chicken and egg saying is appropriate. Has he been working poorly because he is short of peak fitness or is it because he doesn’t like the AW. Echo of Light’s have a terrible record on all types of AW surfaces and we wouldn’t run Educate on it in a race.

Yet, because all the grass gallops are still shut, he has been doing all his prep work on the Polytrack. There is no doubt he will improve for the run and his long –term goal is the Royal Hunt Cup. He will, however, have to rise at least another 10lbs to get in at the Festival.

Primarily, he will be kept to a 1m, on a straight track and, hopefully, fast ground. He can take a tug so plenty of pace and cover are his ideal requirements. He is assured of nearly all of those at Doncaster apart from the ground.

And it’s encouraging that he goes well fresh and his improvement was so swift. He is also amazingly well handicapped with leading fancy, Nameitwhatyoulike, even allowing for the fact that rival didn’t stay the 10f in his race at York.

It would be a major boost for the yard to land this  but I’m certainly more hopeful than confident given that he hasn’t been giving that many positive signals.

Alhaarth Beauty - Wolverhampton.......................................................

Alhaarth Beauty ­ - Wolverhampton

There is no secret in the way that she will be ridden. Her main asset is her speed and she will attempt to make all. Her previous form already sets a decent standard.

Space Artist, whom she had off the bridle after two furlongs, beat her just under two lengths on her last start. He went on to win a 0-75 handicap on his next run. On his comeback appearance at Southwell, Space Artist finished second off 76 in a 0-85 handicap.

The winter break has made a difference to Alhaarth Beauty. She has grown, is more settled and a fitting of a sheepskin noseband now means that her head carriage is lower. Her homework also suggests that not only has she trained on but improved.

The filly has worked with Light Burst in her last two pieces. The first one was good but the second was even better. Even allowing for the fact that Light Burst is more of a 6f/7f horse, he is rated 84 – officially some 18lbs above her.

I’m confident she will beat the older horses and those that have run this year but the unknown runner is David Barron’s A J Cook. He didn’t show a great deal last season in two decent maidens – both on turf – and his half brother’s best run on the AW was on Fibresand over 7f in a claimer in France.

A J Cook has been gelded, though, and may have also improved a lot from two to three. I don’t know. It could that A J Cook will have improved enough to beat Alhaarth Beauty but I suspect he will have to run to a mark of around 75 if he is to. Not sure he is capable of that over 5f.

 

 

 

Mubtadi at Lingfield .....................................................

Mubtadi – Lingfield Monday

Being a pragmatist is vital when placing horses. You should instantly know when looking at the entries of a race whether you genuinely feel, injuries or setbacks aside, you have a decent chance of success.

As soon as the 5-day decs came out for Mubtadi’s event at Lingfield I was happy. He has been a revelation since a few things were tweaked, most noticeably his balls! He is a much sweeter animal and his work at home has been quite amazing.

On form, this step into a 0-70 represents his hardest task to date. this season.  He is also creeping up the handicap. Yet there is plenty to suggest he is still ahead of the handicapper. He was running in 0-80’s last summer when he was having issues with his knee and was still an entire.

He is still only rated 67 (13lbs below a mark he has run well off) and his homework has improved each week. He ran all over Educate in a gallop a couple of weeks ago and then dismissed the promising Magic Lando last Friday with contemptuous ease.

Tactic-wise he is also much more versatile now and the step up to 10f has helped. He made virtually all on his first two starts this season but was held up when winning even easier last time at Wolverhampton.

With three potential front runners in the race those tactics are likely to be employed again, especially as he has a lovely draw in stall 2. Star apprentice Tom Brown has struck up an amazing understanding with Mubtadi and he is now the only jockey that the owner wants to ride him. He rides him perfectly.

There isn’t anything else in the race that is handicapped to be a major worry and the plan is to run Mubtadi back at Yarmouth next Monday with a penalty, if the ground isn’t on the slow side, if he wins at Lingfield.

This will be Mubtadi’s final run on the AW for a while. He is another horse I expect to improve even more once he confronts a fast turf surface.

 

Update on Admiralty, Mubtadi, Educate and Magic Lando. Beth Tweddle

Admiralty should hopefully be back on the track within a few weeks after a x-ray revealed that the injury to his knee is not as serious as was first feared.

He was set to reappear at Kempton on Wednesday over 6f, a distance I’m convinced he will be even better over, but was sore after a gallop on Saturday. He has had problems with his knees before but this time he couldn’t flex it.

The good news is that after medication – his knee can have a full service – he will come back as good as new. He has been earmarked for a race at Wolverhampton on April 8 over 7f.

Mubtadi, who I want to keep for a race at Yarmouth in early April, will reappear at Lingfield on March 25 if the ground looks likely to come up soft on the turf. He will stay over 1m 2f as it suits his style of running and tempo. He should be able to win at least another couple.

Educate continues his build up to the Lincoln with a workout tomorrow (Tuesday) but the reality is that he will probably end up in the consolation race. We need 30 to come out which realistically isn’t going to happen. He wouldn’t want the ground too soft but is an exceptionally nice horse.

New horses will be arriving within the next few weeks but the horse I’m looking forward to seeing is the unraced Magic Lando. The son of Manduro was injured in his first gallop for Richard Hannon. He so laid back that it’s hard to get a handle on him.

Magic Lando, however, is well bred and makes his intended debut at Nottingham, over a 1m, on April 10.

Dancing On Ice is the only reality show that I bet on. Invariably, the best skater wins the event and from an early stage you can narrow the field down to around three after the first couple of weeks.

Beth Tweddle’s victory, following on from Sam Attwater and Mathew Wolfenden, means I have backed the winner for the last three years. I had backed Beth ever since the line-up has been announced in November.

In truth, I did think, especially when Matt Lapinskas went to 1.32 when the market was suspended, that she was going to finish runner-up. Matt consistently got better scores and stronger praise from the judges (hopefully the cavity-inducing Ashley Roberts will be ejected for next year) but for me wasn’t the better skater.

A victory for Matt would also have been a travesty seeing he should have been eliminated in the skate-off with Shayne Ward when he stumbled and touched the ice where, to be fair, Jason Gardiner did say he should go.

It’s an event well worth having a punt on. The downside is that you have to wait four months to get paid.!!