Wednesday, 24 October 2012

Thoughts on Mubtadi at Southwell

Mubtadi  2.00 Southwell

It appears looking at the form that he has been disappointing but there has been mitigating circumstances. He doesn’t like soft ground ( I wasn’t doing the planning then) and when he ran at Redcar a downpour in the morning resulted in the ground changing to good.

But the main reason for the run at Redcar was that he was ill the next day. The upside is that the handicapper dropped him another 4lbs. Thus meaning not only does he run off his lowest mark ever of 65 but also is able to run in a 0-65 for the first time.

The surface will hold no terrors – his sire Dr Fong has impressive strike rate at Southwell – and there will be a change of tactics. The horse has been ridden differently at home (from the front) and that will be the plan unless El Dececy or Elusive Warrior go off too fast.

Ismail  doesn’t presently have that many older horses in the yard to run – we have just 7 to run over the winter with more arriving in January – so the criteria is that each race has to be carefully planned. A 33% strike rate in September has been beaten by 50% per cent rate in October is testimony.

It’s not a strong race and the horse has been working much better with the likes of Light Burst (rated 80) in recent weeks. The drop in grade will help a horse that has had problems but still has a touch of class for this company.



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