Reflection on Mubtabi at Southwell..................................................

Mubtadi -Southwell


As soon as he missed the break Plan A went out of the window. In the circumstances he ran ok, travelling well before getting tired in the final furlong.

Liam Jones said that he needs gelding - if you saw the size of his balls you would agree - and though Ismail is adverse to doing this, he has agreed that it's the best way to go. It worked with Educate and hopefully it will with this fella. It will happen early next week

The track was ok - getting that much kickback it's hard to tell truly - but the idea will be to give him a few weeks to recover, drop him back to 7f and maybe go onto the Poltrack even though Southwell would also be a  possibility.

Today was disappointing but there is a chance he will now drop another couple of pounds and the gelding operation will certainly help. He isn't one to lose faith in just yet.

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There is still plenty to come in the next few weeks. Alhaarth Beauty has a perfect draw in her maiden at Wolverhampton on Saturday. She is top-rated and, apart from a once-raced Tom Dascombe's colt, it doesn't look a strong event.She will also appreciate the 6f trip

Autumnus, an expensive purchase, will make his handicap debut sometime next week, either Wolverhampton or Southwell and will drop back in trip. Light Burst when we can get him in a race while Admiralty will be back in early December.

Thoughts on Mubtadi at Southwell

Mubtadi  2.00 Southwell

It appears looking at the form that he has been disappointing but there has been mitigating circumstances. He doesn’t like soft ground ( I wasn’t doing the planning then) and when he ran at Redcar a downpour in the morning resulted in the ground changing to good.

But the main reason for the run at Redcar was that he was ill the next day. The upside is that the handicapper dropped him another 4lbs. Thus meaning not only does he run off his lowest mark ever of 65 but also is able to run in a 0-65 for the first time.

The surface will hold no terrors – his sire Dr Fong has impressive strike rate at Southwell – and there will be a change of tactics. The horse has been ridden differently at home (from the front) and that will be the plan unless El Dececy or Elusive Warrior go off too fast.

Ismail  doesn’t presently have that many older horses in the yard to run – we have just 7 to run over the winter with more arriving in January – so the criteria is that each race has to be carefully planned. A 33% strike rate in September has been beaten by 50% per cent rate in October is testimony.

It’s not a strong race and the horse has been working much better with the likes of Light Burst (rated 80) in recent weeks. The drop in grade will help a horse that has had problems but still has a touch of class for this company.

 

 

News from Ismail Mohammed's yard

Now Ismail has started to increase his string and now that I do the race planning, race tactics and jockey bookings, I'm in a strong position to discuss the reasoning and chances of horses from the yard.

Mubtadi runs at Southwell on Thursday (preview of the race in the morning) and Alhaarth Beauty, a 72-rated filly from Richard Hannnon, runs a poor maiden at Wolverhampton on Saturday. 

There will also be regular updates of horses' running plans, news of the new juveniles that continue to arrive at Revida Place and those that have left.