Shamaal Nibras at Sandown .........................................................

Shamaal Nibras - Sandown, Thursday

Normally when I look at a race, a bit like when you turn over your exam paper, you scan the field and panic over whom you don't think you can beat. It's not the case here.

I think Shamaal Nibras will win. The fact he is 10-1 is the only surprise. The horse hasn't been in the yard for long but there is much in his favour. A drop of 2lbs, from a promising run at Goodwood (fro an awful draw), enables him to run in a 0-95 for the first time in a while, he acts on the ground and the step up again to a 1m is definitely in his favour.

Shamaal Nibras is a lovely big horse so his stride will be used more tonight than has often been the case with him in the past. There will be plenty of pace in the race with Spa's Dancer, the market leader, the worst drawn in 13, unless they come across to the stands rails.

Plenty of horses in this contest want further and the same number wouldn't want any more rain. I love this horse and his attitude. He really needs to win to cement his place in the Hunt Cup (he is probably too well handicapped now), a race that he would have a chance in.

Autumnus runs at Yarmouth ..........................................................................................................

Autumnus – Yarmouth

Autumnus claims a new record today by being the lowest grade horse on grass that Ismail has sent out since he started training last May. It’s a 0-55 race where the ambulance would be in the top three in the market. It’s terrible with plenty of horses who don’t want to win.

To be fair to Autumnus he has had problems. He has bled, had breathing problems and just for good measure it was decided that his days in the choir were numbered after he ran so poorly at Wolverhampton.

Blinkers have been added. He wears them at home all the time and they seem to help, but some days he works well and others he can’t be arsed. Joe Fanning is an ideal pilot. A horse like Autumnus doesn’t need much of an excuse to down tools and hitting him is a pointless exercise.

There is no doubt that he has ability – he spanked Light Burst one day at home on a going day – and he will be held up and hopefully enjoy being among the pack. He certainly didn’t like leading at Wolverhampton.

Would I have a bet in this race? Not a chance. Can he win? For sure. Will he win? No idea..........

Dubawi Fun at Southwell .................................................................................................................................

Dubawi Fun – Southwell

I’m pleased that we ducked going to Nottingham yesterday with Dubawi Fun . Windfast looks a useful juvenile, as do a few others in the race.  Probably wouldn’t have learnt much.

Dubawi Fun is Ismail’s first 2-y-o runner of the season and it’s hard to gauge how good he is as most of Ismail’s other juveniles are late season types. He has been working with older horses and holding his own. He presently wants to do everything at full speed and his breeding does suggests he will probably want at least 1m next season.

 Southwell is a good starting point. He is by Dubawi so the surface shouldn’t be a problem and the Fibresand may also not help the two market leaders who have decent rather than useful form. In truth, though, it’s a guessing game as to how he will go.

Pat Cosgrave has ridden him in most of his work and he likes him. The other unknown is how he will react going racing for the first time. He is like an excited schoolboy at home hopefully he won’t decide to become a school delinquent.