Educate in the Spring Mile at Doncaster................................................................

Educate at Doncaster

I try to be as honest as I can when I do these blogs. My opinion, therefore, about Educate in the Spring Mile is that I don’t really know what to expect.

He was progressing at a rapid rate of knots at the end of last season. He surprised everybody by winning on heavy ground at York in October, including Jamie Spencer who said he hated it, and he has had the Lincoln/Spring Mile on the agenda since then.

He has been slow to come to hand, however, and if the race was run last week he would have struggled and the race may still come too soon on ground that will be far from ideal; he will be more effective on fast. His chance has also been compromised by the fact he hasn’t been working that well.

This is where the chicken and egg saying is appropriate. Has he been working poorly because he is short of peak fitness or is it because he doesn’t like the AW. Echo of Light’s have a terrible record on all types of AW surfaces and we wouldn’t run Educate on it in a race.

Yet, because all the grass gallops are still shut, he has been doing all his prep work on the Polytrack. There is no doubt he will improve for the run and his long –term goal is the Royal Hunt Cup. He will, however, have to rise at least another 10lbs to get in at the Festival.

Primarily, he will be kept to a 1m, on a straight track and, hopefully, fast ground. He can take a tug so plenty of pace and cover are his ideal requirements. He is assured of nearly all of those at Doncaster apart from the ground.

And it’s encouraging that he goes well fresh and his improvement was so swift. He is also amazingly well handicapped with leading fancy, Nameitwhatyoulike, even allowing for the fact that rival didn’t stay the 10f in his race at York.

It would be a major boost for the yard to land this  but I’m certainly more hopeful than confident given that he hasn’t been giving that many positive signals.

Alhaarth Beauty - Wolverhampton.......................................................

Alhaarth Beauty ­ - Wolverhampton

There is no secret in the way that she will be ridden. Her main asset is her speed and she will attempt to make all. Her previous form already sets a decent standard.

Space Artist, whom she had off the bridle after two furlongs, beat her just under two lengths on her last start. He went on to win a 0-75 handicap on his next run. On his comeback appearance at Southwell, Space Artist finished second off 76 in a 0-85 handicap.

The winter break has made a difference to Alhaarth Beauty. She has grown, is more settled and a fitting of a sheepskin noseband now means that her head carriage is lower. Her homework also suggests that not only has she trained on but improved.

The filly has worked with Light Burst in her last two pieces. The first one was good but the second was even better. Even allowing for the fact that Light Burst is more of a 6f/7f horse, he is rated 84 – officially some 18lbs above her.

I’m confident she will beat the older horses and those that have run this year but the unknown runner is David Barron’s A J Cook. He didn’t show a great deal last season in two decent maidens – both on turf – and his half brother’s best run on the AW was on Fibresand over 7f in a claimer in France.

A J Cook has been gelded, though, and may have also improved a lot from two to three. I don’t know. It could that A J Cook will have improved enough to beat Alhaarth Beauty but I suspect he will have to run to a mark of around 75 if he is to. Not sure he is capable of that over 5f.

 

 

 

Mubtadi at Lingfield .....................................................

Mubtadi – Lingfield Monday

Being a pragmatist is vital when placing horses. You should instantly know when looking at the entries of a race whether you genuinely feel, injuries or setbacks aside, you have a decent chance of success.

As soon as the 5-day decs came out for Mubtadi’s event at Lingfield I was happy. He has been a revelation since a few things were tweaked, most noticeably his balls! He is a much sweeter animal and his work at home has been quite amazing.

On form, this step into a 0-70 represents his hardest task to date. this season.  He is also creeping up the handicap. Yet there is plenty to suggest he is still ahead of the handicapper. He was running in 0-80’s last summer when he was having issues with his knee and was still an entire.

He is still only rated 67 (13lbs below a mark he has run well off) and his homework has improved each week. He ran all over Educate in a gallop a couple of weeks ago and then dismissed the promising Magic Lando last Friday with contemptuous ease.

Tactic-wise he is also much more versatile now and the step up to 10f has helped. He made virtually all on his first two starts this season but was held up when winning even easier last time at Wolverhampton.

With three potential front runners in the race those tactics are likely to be employed again, especially as he has a lovely draw in stall 2. Star apprentice Tom Brown has struck up an amazing understanding with Mubtadi and he is now the only jockey that the owner wants to ride him. He rides him perfectly.

There isn’t anything else in the race that is handicapped to be a major worry and the plan is to run Mubtadi back at Yarmouth next Monday with a penalty, if the ground isn’t on the slow side, if he wins at Lingfield.

This will be Mubtadi’s final run on the AW for a while. He is another horse I expect to improve even more once he confronts a fast turf surface.

 

Update on Admiralty, Mubtadi, Educate and Magic Lando. Beth Tweddle

Admiralty should hopefully be back on the track within a few weeks after a x-ray revealed that the injury to his knee is not as serious as was first feared.

He was set to reappear at Kempton on Wednesday over 6f, a distance I’m convinced he will be even better over, but was sore after a gallop on Saturday. He has had problems with his knees before but this time he couldn’t flex it.

The good news is that after medication – his knee can have a full service – he will come back as good as new. He has been earmarked for a race at Wolverhampton on April 8 over 7f.

Mubtadi, who I want to keep for a race at Yarmouth in early April, will reappear at Lingfield on March 25 if the ground looks likely to come up soft on the turf. He will stay over 1m 2f as it suits his style of running and tempo. He should be able to win at least another couple.

Educate continues his build up to the Lincoln with a workout tomorrow (Tuesday) but the reality is that he will probably end up in the consolation race. We need 30 to come out which realistically isn’t going to happen. He wouldn’t want the ground too soft but is an exceptionally nice horse.

New horses will be arriving within the next few weeks but the horse I’m looking forward to seeing is the unraced Magic Lando. The son of Manduro was injured in his first gallop for Richard Hannon. He so laid back that it’s hard to get a handle on him.

Magic Lando, however, is well bred and makes his intended debut at Nottingham, over a 1m, on April 10.

Dancing On Ice is the only reality show that I bet on. Invariably, the best skater wins the event and from an early stage you can narrow the field down to around three after the first couple of weeks.

Beth Tweddle’s victory, following on from Sam Attwater and Mathew Wolfenden, means I have backed the winner for the last three years. I had backed Beth ever since the line-up has been announced in November.

In truth, I did think, especially when Matt Lapinskas went to 1.32 when the market was suspended, that she was going to finish runner-up. Matt consistently got better scores and stronger praise from the judges (hopefully the cavity-inducing Ashley Roberts will be ejected for next year) but for me wasn’t the better skater.

A victory for Matt would also have been a travesty seeing he should have been eliminated in the skate-off with Shayne Ward when he stumbled and touched the ice where, to be fair, Jason Gardiner did say he should go.

It’s an event well worth having a punt on. The downside is that you have to wait four months to get paid.!!