Educate in the Spring Mile at Doncaster................................................................

Educate at Doncaster

I try to be as honest as I can when I do these blogs. My opinion, therefore, about Educate in the Spring Mile is that I don’t really know what to expect.

He was progressing at a rapid rate of knots at the end of last season. He surprised everybody by winning on heavy ground at York in October, including Jamie Spencer who said he hated it, and he has had the Lincoln/Spring Mile on the agenda since then.

He has been slow to come to hand, however, and if the race was run last week he would have struggled and the race may still come too soon on ground that will be far from ideal; he will be more effective on fast. His chance has also been compromised by the fact he hasn’t been working that well.

This is where the chicken and egg saying is appropriate. Has he been working poorly because he is short of peak fitness or is it because he doesn’t like the AW. Echo of Light’s have a terrible record on all types of AW surfaces and we wouldn’t run Educate on it in a race.

Yet, because all the grass gallops are still shut, he has been doing all his prep work on the Polytrack. There is no doubt he will improve for the run and his long –term goal is the Royal Hunt Cup. He will, however, have to rise at least another 10lbs to get in at the Festival.

Primarily, he will be kept to a 1m, on a straight track and, hopefully, fast ground. He can take a tug so plenty of pace and cover are his ideal requirements. He is assured of nearly all of those at Doncaster apart from the ground.

And it’s encouraging that he goes well fresh and his improvement was so swift. He is also amazingly well handicapped with leading fancy, Nameitwhatyoulike, even allowing for the fact that rival didn’t stay the 10f in his race at York.

It would be a major boost for the yard to land this  but I’m certainly more hopeful than confident given that he hasn’t been giving that many positive signals.

Alhaarth Beauty - Wolverhampton.......................................................

Alhaarth Beauty ­ - Wolverhampton

There is no secret in the way that she will be ridden. Her main asset is her speed and she will attempt to make all. Her previous form already sets a decent standard.

Space Artist, whom she had off the bridle after two furlongs, beat her just under two lengths on her last start. He went on to win a 0-75 handicap on his next run. On his comeback appearance at Southwell, Space Artist finished second off 76 in a 0-85 handicap.

The winter break has made a difference to Alhaarth Beauty. She has grown, is more settled and a fitting of a sheepskin noseband now means that her head carriage is lower. Her homework also suggests that not only has she trained on but improved.

The filly has worked with Light Burst in her last two pieces. The first one was good but the second was even better. Even allowing for the fact that Light Burst is more of a 6f/7f horse, he is rated 84 – officially some 18lbs above her.

I’m confident she will beat the older horses and those that have run this year but the unknown runner is David Barron’s A J Cook. He didn’t show a great deal last season in two decent maidens – both on turf – and his half brother’s best run on the AW was on Fibresand over 7f in a claimer in France.

A J Cook has been gelded, though, and may have also improved a lot from two to three. I don’t know. It could that A J Cook will have improved enough to beat Alhaarth Beauty but I suspect he will have to run to a mark of around 75 if he is to. Not sure he is capable of that over 5f.

 

 

 

Mubtadi at Lingfield .....................................................

Mubtadi – Lingfield Monday

Being a pragmatist is vital when placing horses. You should instantly know when looking at the entries of a race whether you genuinely feel, injuries or setbacks aside, you have a decent chance of success.

As soon as the 5-day decs came out for Mubtadi’s event at Lingfield I was happy. He has been a revelation since a few things were tweaked, most noticeably his balls! He is a much sweeter animal and his work at home has been quite amazing.

On form, this step into a 0-70 represents his hardest task to date. this season.  He is also creeping up the handicap. Yet there is plenty to suggest he is still ahead of the handicapper. He was running in 0-80’s last summer when he was having issues with his knee and was still an entire.

He is still only rated 67 (13lbs below a mark he has run well off) and his homework has improved each week. He ran all over Educate in a gallop a couple of weeks ago and then dismissed the promising Magic Lando last Friday with contemptuous ease.

Tactic-wise he is also much more versatile now and the step up to 10f has helped. He made virtually all on his first two starts this season but was held up when winning even easier last time at Wolverhampton.

With three potential front runners in the race those tactics are likely to be employed again, especially as he has a lovely draw in stall 2. Star apprentice Tom Brown has struck up an amazing understanding with Mubtadi and he is now the only jockey that the owner wants to ride him. He rides him perfectly.

There isn’t anything else in the race that is handicapped to be a major worry and the plan is to run Mubtadi back at Yarmouth next Monday with a penalty, if the ground isn’t on the slow side, if he wins at Lingfield.

This will be Mubtadi’s final run on the AW for a while. He is another horse I expect to improve even more once he confronts a fast turf surface.

 

Update on Admiralty, Mubtadi, Educate and Magic Lando. Beth Tweddle

Admiralty should hopefully be back on the track within a few weeks after a x-ray revealed that the injury to his knee is not as serious as was first feared.

He was set to reappear at Kempton on Wednesday over 6f, a distance I’m convinced he will be even better over, but was sore after a gallop on Saturday. He has had problems with his knees before but this time he couldn’t flex it.

The good news is that after medication – his knee can have a full service – he will come back as good as new. He has been earmarked for a race at Wolverhampton on April 8 over 7f.

Mubtadi, who I want to keep for a race at Yarmouth in early April, will reappear at Lingfield on March 25 if the ground looks likely to come up soft on the turf. He will stay over 1m 2f as it suits his style of running and tempo. He should be able to win at least another couple.

Educate continues his build up to the Lincoln with a workout tomorrow (Tuesday) but the reality is that he will probably end up in the consolation race. We need 30 to come out which realistically isn’t going to happen. He wouldn’t want the ground too soft but is an exceptionally nice horse.

New horses will be arriving within the next few weeks but the horse I’m looking forward to seeing is the unraced Magic Lando. The son of Manduro was injured in his first gallop for Richard Hannon. He so laid back that it’s hard to get a handle on him.

Magic Lando, however, is well bred and makes his intended debut at Nottingham, over a 1m, on April 10.

Dancing On Ice is the only reality show that I bet on. Invariably, the best skater wins the event and from an early stage you can narrow the field down to around three after the first couple of weeks.

Beth Tweddle’s victory, following on from Sam Attwater and Mathew Wolfenden, means I have backed the winner for the last three years. I had backed Beth ever since the line-up has been announced in November.

In truth, I did think, especially when Matt Lapinskas went to 1.32 when the market was suspended, that she was going to finish runner-up. Matt consistently got better scores and stronger praise from the judges (hopefully the cavity-inducing Ashley Roberts will be ejected for next year) but for me wasn’t the better skater.

A victory for Matt would also have been a travesty seeing he should have been eliminated in the skate-off with Shayne Ward when he stumbled and touched the ice where, to be fair, Jason Gardiner did say he should go.

It’s an event well worth having a punt on. The downside is that you have to wait four months to get paid.!!

 

Updated news from Ismail Mohammed's

IT has been a fantastic week for Revida Place. Three winners from three runners is something that I hoped for but rarely does it all come together. It means Ismail has now had five winners from six runners in 2013. The only setback was Autumnus, who has since been gelded for his mulish display at Wolverhampton!!.

Mubtadi’s hat-trick victory at Wolverhampton on Monday gave me immense personal satisfaction as most had written him off including our head lad. Gelding him has altered his attitude and so has the change of tactics, but pairing him with Tom Brown has been the cherry.

I have bored everybody senseless of how highly I rate the apprentice from Andrew Balding’s but his handling of Mubtadi and, indeed, Light Burst has been superb. He is very good judge of pace and listens and absorbs information.

Hopefully, he will be latched on to by a trainer looking to use the best 5lb claimer riding. He is a good talker and always wants to improve. He even thought he gave Light Burst a bad ride when winning at Southwell.

Light Burst blew up at Southwell but his class saw him through. He will improve a lot from the run. His ideal conditions will be a fast turf surface over 7f and there is a race at Brighton on April 25 which he will aim for as long as he is not raised above 85. He won’t be easy to place unless he improves again.

The intention with Mubtadi is to try and extend the sequence of wins to as many as possible. His handicap mark suggests that will be possible. His success on Monday – when he stepped up to 1m2f – was off 62. He has run well of 81 in the past.

I would be surprised if he was raised more than 5lbs for winning at Wolves seeing he won by less than a length. We found out over 10f that we can ride him for a turn of foot or make the running over a 1m.

Mubtadi will now have a short break and come back for the turf. He does need it fast and he, too, will go to Brighton. There is a 0-70 at the track on April 1. He won there as a 3-y-o with David Simcock.

Admiralty continued his rise up the grades with an impressive victory at Kempton. He is a lovely big horse that has the speed to win over 6f but has, so far, produced his best form over 7f. Joe (Fanning) said he felt he could also be ridden from behind, such is his cruising speed. That will give plenty more options.

The handicapper will produce his new mark on Tuesday. He is not a horse that has run well on the turf, although both races were on soft ground. So the plan is to keep him to the AW and pick the races carefully. I love him.

Educate will have his racecourse gallop at Lingfield on March 2 and then we will know where we stand in terms of his preparation for the Lincoln on March 23. He has strengthened up over the winter and Jamie Spencer liked him a lot when he won on him at York.

There is an ambition plan this year for Educate, who will run in the consolation race if he doesn’t get into the Lincoln. Liam Jones, who is back from India on March 5, will ride him if not required by William Haggas for Nine Realms.

We will have a strong team of jockeys this year. Tom Brown will ride plenty of the handicappers, Liam will ride Educate and Alhaarth Beauty and hopefully Shane Kelly will like to stay with the unraced Magic Lando after he rides him at work tomorrow.

The new recruits are primed to arrive at Revida Place and they will come when Ismail is back from the Dubai Carnival. I have been promised there are a few nice ones there!!!.

 

 

 

 

Admiralty at Kempton ....................................................................................................

Admiralty - Kempton

Admiralty is none the worst for his spill at Southwell when he slipped over coming on to the course and ran loose for five minutes. He was fine but the decision to withdraw was unanimous in light of what had happened.

He is back over 7f for which in essence is his first race in four months. In truth, he has been ready to run for over a month but a series of minor blips; a pricked foot, snow at Kempton and then the fall at Southwell.

Like Light Burst, the rest was purely because he needed a break. He is a horse that has been a case of a work in progress. I think we are finally there. We seem to have cured his slow starts, 7f is probably his ideal trip (although he will try 6f in time) and he is best with forcing tactics.

This is a weak 0-75. Indeed, if the race hadn't be re-offered, The Guru of Gloom wouldn't be in the line-up. You have to respect his chance seeing he has won in this grade and has only been raised 3lbs.

Admiralty is up in grade but he has improved a lot and, even though he is drawn in seven, the most pertinent thing is that he is the sole speed in the race. He is a horse with a high cruising speed and, with Tom Brown banned, Joe Fanning takes over and there are not many better judges from the front.

Teds Brother caught the eye on his return from a break when just behind Jake The Snake. Both, however, need a strong gallop, along with  Master Mylo and The Guru of Gloom. The intention will be not to do that.

Terry

Light Burst runs at Southwell..........Mubtadi gains a hat-trick

Light Burst - Southwell Feb 19

He is a horse that is probably now at the upper end of his handicap mark. The switch to Fibresand and the booking of Tom Brown to claim a valuable 5lbs is something I've done to try and squeeze some improvement.

That said, this an easier race than his last two starts - both in 0-85 - and he is a horse bred to go on the surface. His sire was a top class dirt horse and, although all three of his progeny have been beaten at Southwell, all three have travelled well on it.

It's not a strong race. Abi Scarlet, though 3-3 at the track, has been in awful form and I'm not convinced that she stays 7f. Add to the fact she was entered in the seller on the card suggests all is not well. You do have to respect Piceno on the surface, though.

The key for Scott Dixon's runner is that he is the sole speed. Tactically, it is a tricky race for Tom. Light Burst will travel well and I don't  mind the draw in nine, but he can be keen and does need some cover, that may mean he might get kickback in the process.

But with Tom's claim (a very useful 5lbs) he is effectively only running 4lb above his 8 length win at Brighton. The 3 month break was at the request of the owner. He has been fine and does run well fresh. Can he win? Yes. Do I think he will? Hopefully, ;-)

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Mubtadi's hat-trick today has been a testimony to forward planning, a gelding operation and three superb rides from Tom Brown. I do all the tactics, but they still have to be carried out. Brown, barely 21, has done it perfectly three times.

Andrew Balding's apprentice is 4-4 for Ismail and, is in my mind, one of the top three apprentices in Britain. His tactical awareness for one so young is astounding. His relationship with Mubtadi is like coffee and cream.

Mubtadi was a nutcase before his gelding operation. Now, after also changing tactics and how he works at home, you couldn't wish to meet a nicer horse. He is still way below his mark of 80 and he is a much happier horse as well.

We also now use the blindfold to avoid missing the break, and the step up to 1m 2f gives us more options. He can make the running or come from behind. He is likely to only go up around 5lbs for today which will still leave him on a tasty 67.

Mubtadi will have a short break, but is earmarked for a 0-70 at Brighton in April over 10 furlongs at a track he has already won at. So pleased for horse and jockey, and, of course, Ismail

Terry