Disappointments, reality shows, perfect ending

Mubtadi showed all the planning in the world can go out of the window if the said horse decides not to play ball.

The concerns grew when, having been mounted in the paddock at Wolves on Saturday by Shane Kelly, he refused to walk forward, then unwillingly going on to the track.

The plan to lead went out the window when he once again missed the break. The frustrating thing is the problem is mental rather than physical. It has drove me mad since

The only consolation is that the handicapper has dropped him another 5lbs to 57. It means he can run in a 0-60 at Lingfield on Thursday week.

Him missing the break is being worked on and the idea is to let him think he is king of the castle at home. Tom Brown will ride him (Shane goes to Wolves to ride Autumnus) and will take off a valuable 7lbs.

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Betting is now out for Dancing On Ice and those who have read this blog before will know that I would have been delighted to see that Beth Tweddle is available at 3-1 with most firms

Yes I know people are yet to see her skate but I have it on good authority that she is superb. Competition starts on Jan 6 but it's a price isn't likely to get any bigger.

Popularity plays an important part in these reality shows (exemplified by the lack of support for Denise Van Outen in Strictly) and you only have to check Tweddle 's page to see how popular she is.

Also Dancing On Ice is one of the few reality shows where the best contestant often gains success.

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Mubtadi at Wolverhampton

Mubtadi – Wolverhampton Dec 14

There really shouldn’t be any excuses from him there  He is off his lowest mark, over his best trip and the gelding operation has certainly made a difference.  They were the size of coconuts. He has loads of abilty and, even though he missed the break at Southwell, he ran well until not staying.

He looks well and he is fit despite having 50 days off since his last race. He has also been working well. 

The key will be the tactics. The hood (fitted first trme) will hopefully not just relax him during the race but also cure his habit of missing the break – something he has done the last twice.

There isn’t a lot of pace in the contest so the plan is for Shane to sit handy, but there isn’t an obvious pacemaker so I wouldn’t mind if he made the running. I’m convinced the hood will prevent him from being too keen.

We have the best handicapped horse in the race – he ran well off 80 in July – off a  rating of 62. He certainly didn't try very hard at Southwell but if the gelding has done the trick, the 14-1 offered by BET 365 is way overpriced.

Mubtadi, a potential secret weapon, Beth Tweddle

It's a quiet time for the stable as the wait for new arrivals gathers momentum. They will be appearing in the middle of next month

Mubtadi carries the flag on Friday at Wolverhampton where, granted a decent draw, he will be the one to beat.

His recent form doesn't look great but he has loads of ability and the gelding operation has helped. He worked well in a hood on Saturday under Shane Kelly , who will ride him on Friday.

Our secret weapon may be a horse that worked in the gallop with Mubtadi - he has had problems but they are being attended too!

We are still awaiting the nod from Ismail but he could be an early New Year present if allowed to run just after Christmas.

I thought Christmas had come early whenPaddy Power quoted me 5-1 for Beth Tweddle to win Dancing On Ice - that turned to frustration when I was allowed only £20!!

I love this event from a betting medium and, even though Im likely to compromise my own chance of a decent price,I fancy Tweddle strongly.

Mubtadi works well.......Beth Tweddle,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, X Factor............

Mubtadi worked well this morning in the hood. He went 6f with Autumnus and pulled clear close home. It was pleasing and puts him spot on for a 0-65 7f handicap at Wolverhampton on Friday.

Shane Kelly, who rode him today, will ride him on Friday. He runs off a mark of just 62. He also  runs for the first time as a gelding. Entries are out today.
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I know i'm in danger of having egg on my face, but I would suggest taking any prices available on Beth Tweddle to win this year's Dancing On Ice. On paper it looks a poor line-up, the likes of Pamela Anderson, Joe Pasquale, Gareth Thomas and Anthea Turner hardly excite.

Tweddle is a Olympic gymnast, is small but, more importantly, is a natural. Two soap stars have won the last two years but I have long believed a girl has a major advantage. Laura Hamilton and Georgie Porter have been runners-up for the past two years, yet Tweddle is an athlete who has been excellent in training.

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It's the final of the X Factor tonight and my advice if you want a bet is to follow the market on Betfair. I'm convinced there is insider trading going on in these reality shows, personified by the last ten minutes of last week's I'm A Celebrity.

Ashley was trading at 1.48 when the final programme began, was still 1.73 with 20 minutes to go. Suddenly a rush of money, saw Ashley drift to 2.5 and the eventual winner, Charlie Brookes, shorten to 1.34 from 2.3.

It's not the first time the market has proved to be the best guide and it could well prove the best form guide tonight.

Mubtadi works with new headgear

Mubtadi works in the morning with a hood in preparation for his race at Wolverhampton next Friday

The gelding operation seems to have worked - he is much happier and manageable - and even dropped head lad, Pete Harrison, on the gallops

He runs off a mark of just 62 and I will be shocked if he can not win of that rating. Shane Kelly is coming in to sit on him.

News about Light Burst, Eddie Ahern, Sports personality and Beth Tweddle,,....

Light Burst was a big disappointment at Kempton and the consensus was that the race came too soon after his third at Wolverhampton. That is a possibility but I’m not convinced.

There were a few issues before his race at Wolverhampton so there may have been another reason. Ismail now wants to give him a break so he will now be off until mid-January.

Mubtadi has recovered well from his gelding operation and is still on course for Wolverhampton on December 14. He is officially rated 62. I will be devastated if he can’t win of that mark. He is very well handicapped.

The juveniles continue to improve and the wait for the rest to arrive will go on to January. Educate comes back into work after Christmas. He is still on course for a crack at the Lincoln. He looks really well.

Another worth making a note of is Magic Lando. He is an unraced horse by Lando. He is gorgeous and a race at Nottingham in April has been pencilled in for his debut at three. He is still trotting after his injury in July but looks the part.

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I’m not going to comment on whether the impeding corruption charge about to be bestowed on Eddie Ahern is warranted or not but surely now the news has broken is it fair on him or the public that he continues to ride?

From Ahern’s point of view he will, no doubt, state that he has done nothing wrong and he should be allowed to ply his trade: innocent until proven guilty. Yet he is in a no win situation. Having booked his rides for six years, I’m aware of the names that he has been labelled with.

Now, as soon as he gets beat on a horse with a favoured chance, the obvious accusations will be slung. This can’t be right. The same happened with Kirsty Milczarek and Jimmy Quinn. It must have been especially galling for Kirsty as, having served part of her ban, she was subsequently exonerated, but the damage was already done.

Trainers and, more importantly, owners lose faith. In this case it was the Bangalore Turf Club that revealed Ahern was about to be charged. The problem for Ahern now is that the BHA Sword of Damocles hangs over him. For how long, who knows?

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The final 12 for the Sports Personality of the Year have just been revealed and you have to say that it is probably the strongest ever assembled. Yet it has not stop one-eyed cycling fans suggesting that Bradley Wiggins is a ‘certainty’

Really?  No doubt Wiggins’ achievement in winning the Tour De France was immense, but so was what Mo Farrah, Jessica Ennis and Andy Murray produced. I wouldn’t want to be taking an average of 4-7 on Wiggins (1.42 on Betfair) for a contest which is decided by the public and not ‘experts’

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Beth Tweddle, Beth Tweddle, Beth Tweddle. Dancing on Ice. ITV soon. You have been told.

 

Light Burst runs at Kempton tomorrow. Here are my thoughts ........................................................

Light Burst – Nov 22 (Kempton)

He will be much straighter for his run at Wolves, he is in good form (he bit me on Tuesday morning) and he is over a trip which will enable him to get into a smooth rhythm.

The draw is ok but there are two slight concerns. There is very little pace in the race and there are a number of horses in the event which, through stepping up in trip, may not stick to their normal run styles through being keen.

The other unknown is the unexposed Selkie’s Friend. He won on his debut back in July in a poor maiden at Newmarket. He was earmarked for Hong Kong but his rating of 78 isn’t high enough and Henry Candy is forced to run him here.

However, with the exception of half brother Magic Cross, most of the siblings are better on turf and not one of them has won further than 7f. Indeed, most are better over 6 furlongs.

Tactics will be changed slightly. The need for cover is just as important but for a horse that travels well he lengthens rather than quickens, so it won’t be allowed to develop into a sprint. Shane Kelly has to ride Prime Exhibit, so Andrea Atzeni has been booked. He should suit the horse.

He proved on Monday that a mark of 80 is within his range and he is a tough and genuine horse.  Hopefully, the dark horse won't improve beyond him.